Iran's automotive industry, despite decades of governmental support and its strategic position, has failed to achieve sustainable and competitive development. Based on the author’s doctoral dissertation in Public Policy, this study asks why the cycle of failure in automotive policy persists in Public Policy, poses the question of why the cycle of failure in automotive policy persists. Utilizing the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF), it analyzes the conflicts among three producer coalitions—centered on the national brand, assembly, and imports—during the period from 1991 to 2024. The research method is based on systematic grounded theory, employing the analysis of documentary and media data. The findings indicate that the lack of a unified and stable strategy stems from a fragile balance among the coalitions and the reproduction of contradictory decisions with each change of government. External shocks, such as sanctions and currency crises, have not led to policy learning; instead, they have pushed policymaking back toward deeply rooted protectionist beliefs. Policy learning has largely been intra-coalition and limited to secondary beliefs, while inter-coalition learning has not occurred due to intense conflict and the devil-shift phenomenon. Consequently, the automotive industry suffers from the accumulation of unfinished policies and unresolved conflicts. Finally, a three-stage transition model—comprising smart assembly, regulated imports, and the revival of a development-oriented national brand —is proposed.