Objective: On the one hand, this study serves as an operational roadmap to assist managers in making optimal decisions in high-risk business environments, and on the other hand, it provides a practical framework for policymakers to stabilize and sustain the business environment. The aim of this study is to develop an antifragility model for commercial managers and to examine its impact on corporate financial risk management.
Methodology: This study is applied in terms of purpose and employs a mixed-method (qualitative–quantitative) approach. In the qualitative phase, using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), the dimensions and relationships among antifragility factors were identified and analyzed across three scenarios: economic, political–geographical, and market–competition. In the quantitative phase, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to test the relationships among variables and to assess the model fit. The statistical population consisted of managers and experts in the financial and commercial sectors.
Findings: The results indicated that managerial antifragility is a multidimensional and network-based construct, in which factors such as flexible financial management, export market diversification, and product innovation were identified as the most important driving forces across different scenarios. Furthermore, the quantitative results showed that managerial antifragility has a positive and significant effect on corporate financial risk management and explains a substantial portion of its variance.
Conclusion: Overall, the findings suggest that antifragility is not merely an individual trait but a strategic and systemic capability in organizational management that can reduce financial risks and create sustainable competitive advantage through financial flexibility, diversification, innovation, and dynamic decision-making